Local government hiring remains strong—for now
In contrast to federal workforce cuts, the local government hiring picture continues to chug along. But economic uncertainty looms.
Welcome back readers and welcome to my new subscribers! I’m going to share some of the main takeaways and data from the MissionSquare Research Institute’s annual workforce survey in this newsletter. But first, a personal note.
Just like any skill, writing requires practice. Without regular workouts, the muscle memory fades and things just don’t work as smoothly. When I was a full-time journalist, I wrote a few stories a week and while the pace could sometimes be exhausting it kept me in prime “writing shape.” These days, as I’m sure many of you have noticed, I’m not as prolific as I once was. In recent months, I’ve filed away countless ideas and loosely-formed thoughts about things I’d like to cover. But when it comes down to it—I either don’t have the mental energy or I just plain don’t know where to start.
It feels as if I’m out of shape. What used to flow somewhat effortlessly from my head and onto the computer screen now keeps getting interrupted by competing internal thoughts, lots of backspacing and much second-guessing.
When I’m asked for writing advice, one of the first things I tell people is to write short and write often. Don’t worry about making it pretty, just get the ideas out so you can look at them. It’s time I took my own advice!
After all, the point of the Long Story Short newsletter was to be brief, informative and straightforward. So, here’s me getting back on the horse.
Hiring is up, quits are down
During the pandemic, state and local governments lost more than 1 million workers through layoffs, quits and retirement. Then when the economy bounced back, they were outmatched by the private sector in terms of wages. Many continued to lose workers who were burnt out and over-stressed.
It’s a very different picture these days. States and localities recovered their lost jobs by the end of 2023 and continued to expand their workforce in 2024. According to the MissionSquare survey:
60% of state and local government respondents said their workforce increased in 2024.
That’s up slightly from 2023, when 58% said their workforce grew.
23% said they had more people quitting in 2024 than the previous year. However that’s much lower than 2022, when nearly 70% said more people were quitting.
Importantly, more than half of respondents said they increased their number of full-time positions meaning these are not temporary or contract workers. These are jobs with benefits which means they are also very likely supporting economic growth within their localities.
Retirees and college kids
Succession planning has been a big worry among state and local government leaders, and for good reason.
“With 2024 marking the peak number of workers reaching age 65, 54% of HR managers report that the largest number of anticipated retirements is still to come in the next few years,” MissionSquare’s Gerald Young recently wrote. “Once that happens, the number of vacancies will increase significantly.”
Getting Gen Z into the government workforce AND getting them to stick around has been a challenge. But the 2024 survey notes that governments are paying more attention to engaging a multi-generational workforce and that 60% report being “very or somewhat successful” in attracting new generations. This “can help organizations pass on key institutional knowledge before the Baby Boom generation has fully retired,” the survey said.
College outreach is improving: Nearly one-third of governments identified college outreach/partnership as one of their most successful recruitment methods, up from 27% in 2022.
Bringing back retirees: One-third of respondents said they rehired an employee who had retired.
Federal worker fallout?
This week, the Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to continue its federal workforce downsizing. This came just days after the U.S. Office of Personnel Management touted the successful elimination of 23,000 federal jobs and promised that “hundreds of thousands more workers will drop off the rolls in October 2025, when workers depart the federal government as part of the Deferred Resignation Program.”
The state and local workforce survey notes that states like Hawaii, New Mexico, New York and Virginia, along with a handful of local governments, have “ramped up outreach efforts and seen an uptick in applications [while] 52% of federal employees have indicated a strong interest in state or local employment.”
BUT: While this seems like a slam dunk for states and localities, there might be more challenges than opportunities. For one, those fired from or leaving the federal government might not easily find a state or local government job opening near them that fits their skillset. The workforce survey highlights engineering, policing, nursing and dispatch as the top occupations that remain the hardest to fill for states and localities. Many job roles in these professions are relatively unique and don’t have an easy match on the federal side.
Moreover, local governments may have to slow their roll if the federal funding cuts to healthcare and higher education start hitting their local economies. Longer-term, the cuts to state Medicaid and SNAP funding are also expected to flow down in part to localities. The National Association of Counties, for example, estimates that the SNAP “cost shift could increase administrative costs for counties by approximately $865 million annually.”
Feel-good jobs
Let’s end on a positive note. Gen Z and younger Millennials may be hard to pin down to one workplace, but they also love a job with purpose. States and localities have those in spades.
MissionSquare also conducts a survey of state and local employees 35 and under, which has found that key motivations for seeking out a public sector job were stability, personal satisfaction, and ability to serve the community.
“To build on that interest, some governments are building their communications campaigns around public service or encouraging employee engagement with the community, such as through volunteer involvement or matching donations,” Young writes. “Whether recruitment challenges are easing now or becoming acute again soon as anticipated retirements take place, attention to flexibility and motivation will remain key in helping governments compete for talent. “